Imagine you’re standing in your kitchen, staring at a pile of ingredients for what you thought would be a quick weeknight dinner. You planned for 30 minutes, tops. But then you realize you need to chop all those vegetables, preheat the oven, wait for water to boil, and suddenly, an hour has flown by, and you’re still not eating. Sound familiar?
We’ve all been there, whether it’s a simple meal, a work project, or even just running errands. We often underestimate how long things will truly take. This isn’t just about being overly optimistic, it’s a fundamental challenge in how our brains process complex tasks. But what if there was a way to get better at predicting your time, so you could plan your days with more accuracy and less stress?
That’s exactly what we’re diving into today: the art of estimating tasks. It’s not about having a crystal ball, but about understanding the hidden complexities and building in smart strategies to ensure you actually get things done without feeling constantly behind.
Why Our Estimates Often Miss the Mark
When we look at a big project, our minds tend to simplify it. We see the end goal, but often gloss over the intricate steps and potential roadblocks. It’s like planning to build a 100-story building and thinking, “Well, if one floor takes a day, it’ll be done in 100 days.”
But as anyone who’s ever seen a construction site knows, it’s never that simple. You have to lay a strong foundation, account for wind sway, install plumbing, electrical, and countless other systems. Each of these adds layers of complexity that aren’t immediately obvious when you first envision the finished skyscraper.
The same applies to our daily tasks. Launching a podcast, for instance, isn’t just “recording and uploading.” It involves logo design, equipment setup, audio testing, video lighting, editing, and distribution. What seems like a simple idea can quickly balloon into hundreds of hours of work. The more complex or unfamiliar a task is, the harder it becomes to estimate accurately. Our brains naturally gravitate towards the simplest path, overlooking the detours and unexpected turns.
The Power of Breaking Down Tasks (and Story Points)
So, if big, complex tasks are hard to estimate, what’s the solution? Break them down. Way down. Think of it like disassembling that 100-story building into its individual bricks, beams, and pipes. When you focus on smaller, more manageable pieces, estimation becomes much clearer.
At Asian Efficiency, we learned a powerful lesson from the world of Scrum, a project management framework. We discovered that estimating in units of time (like hours or days) can be misleading because everyone works at a different pace and has different skill levels. What takes one person 20 minutes might take another an hour.
Instead, we started using “story points.” These aren’t about time, but about the effort, complexity, and resources it takes to get something done. We use a modified Fibonacci sequence (like 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) to assign points. The numbers grow quickly because the more complex something is, the harder it is to estimate precisely.
Here’s a rough guide we use:
- 1 Story Point: A quick, simple task (like 30 minutes or less). Think of it as one Pomodoro.
- 2 Story Points: An hour or so of focused work.
- 3 Story Points: A few hours, maybe half a morning or afternoon.
- 5 Story Points: Roughly half a day’s worth of work.
- 8 Story Points: A full day of focused work.
- 13+ Story Points: This is your warning sign. If a task hits 13 or more story points, it’s probably too big and needs to be broken down further.
Using story points forces you to think about the true scope of a task, not just the clock. It helps you identify those “21-point” monsters and proactively split them into smaller, more manageable chunks. This not only makes estimation easier but also reduces procrastination because smaller tasks feel less daunting to start.
What’s one big task on your plate right now that you could break down into smaller, more manageable pieces?
Defining “Done” (The Marathon Analogy)
Have you ever started a project with enthusiasm, only to find yourself endlessly tweaking, refining, and never quite feeling “finished”? It’s like running a marathon without knowing where the finish line is. You might sprint at the beginning, burn out, and never actually complete the race.
This is why having a clear “Definition of Done” (DoD) is crucial. Before you even begin a task, ask yourself: What does “done” look like for this? The more specific you are, the better.
For example, if you’re writing a newsletter, “done” isn’t just “written.” It could be:
- “Newsletter written, edited, and scheduled to go out on Tuesday at 3 PM Central Time.”
- Or, for more detail: “Newsletter on task estimation, at least 600 words, mentioning five Asian Efficiency blog posts, with a compelling headline, and scheduled for Tuesday at 3 PM Central Time.”
When you have a clear DoD, you know exactly what you’re aiming for. This eliminates endless tinkering, reduces procrastination, and makes delegation much smoother (because the other person knows exactly what you expect). It’s like having a clear finish line in your marathon, allowing you to pace yourself, strategize, and celebrate when you cross it.
How often do you define “done” before you start a task? What would change if you did this consistently?
Time Blocking and The Buffer Multiplier
Once you have a better handle on how long tasks should take (thanks to breaking them down and defining “done”), the next step is to actually make time for them. This is where time blocking comes in. It’s about intentionally scheduling specific blocks of time on your calendar for specific tasks.
But here’s a crucial tip: always build in a buffer. If you’re new to estimating, or even if you’re a seasoned pro, things almost always take longer than you think. My advice? Whatever you estimate, multiply it by two. If you think a task will take an hour, block out two hours. You’ll be surprised how often that extra time is needed, and how much less stressed you’ll feel when you have it.
As you get better at estimating, you can reduce that multiplier to 1.5. Even for routine tasks, I still allocate 1.5 times my initial estimate. It’s better to finish early and have extra time than to constantly be playing catch-up.
This buffer isn’t just for individual tasks. You can also schedule “buffer time” on your calendar each day or week. These are blocks purely for catching up on emails, administrative work, or those unexpected tasks that pop up. Brooks, my co-host, loves to schedule 15-30 minutes at the end of each day just for this. It’s a simple habit that prevents small things from snowballing into big problems.
Think of your calendar like a game of Tetris. You have blocks of different shapes (your tasks) and you need to fit them into the available space (your time). By accurately estimating and building in buffers, you’re giving yourself more room to maneuver and ensuring your blocks fit neatly, rather than overflowing.
Your Actionable Takeaway
The next time you’re about to tackle a new project or a daunting task, pause for a moment. Instead of just diving in, try this:
1. Break it Down: Can you split this big task into 2-3 smaller, more manageable steps?
2. Define “Done”: What does success look like for each of those smaller steps? Be specific.
3. Apply the Buffer: Take your best estimate for each step and multiply it by two.
4. Time Block: Schedule those buffered time blocks on your calendar.
You’ll likely find that your week feels smoother, you’re less stressed, and you’re actually getting more of the important things done. It’s a simple shift that can make a massive difference in your productivity and peace of mind.
